Can President Palin Happen?

Posted: February 18, 2010 in Politics
Tags: ,

I had written at the time of Palin’s resignation of the Alaska governorship that I thought Palin’s political career was over.  But recently that seed of doubt had been slowly creeping back into my mind (pretty much in the form of nightmares that would frighten Freddy Kruger!).  Some of the pieces of the puzzle that would make a Palin presidency possible seemed to falling into place in my eyes.

Obama looks to be extremely vulnerable.  Right now he has all the look of a single-term guy.  Now personally he has disappointed me with his handling of the terrorism and foreign policy.  Ignore the rhetoric and look at the actual actions and it is clear that all-in-all Obama has pretty much adopted the Bush/Cheney philosophy (all the while still getting ripped by Cheney anyway; what an insane world we live in).  But while that may annoy some in Obama’s base, that’s not really why he is trouble.  Most Americans don’t care about the occupations, at least not enough that it will influence their vote.  No, Obama is in trouble for two reasons.  First, unemployment is sky-high.  And second, Obama has wasted an incredible amount of political capital on health care reform without anything to show for it.

Tackling health care reform is a good thing from a ‘right thing to do’ perspective.  But it is not a good thing politically.  This is mainly because the health care industry has major influence in Congress, and they do not want change.  The President really doesn’t have much power to change anything regarding health care, it has to be Congress.  So going after health care as President does about as much good as banging your head against a wall.  Just ask Bill Clinton.  So not only does health care not get fixed, but as an added bonus, Obama looks ineffective.  (I am pretty convinced at this point that we will do nothing for health care until the whole thing just collapses.  Not the best way to handle a problem, but whatever.)  Additionally, with the high unemployment, he will certainly be painted as being focused on the wrong issue.  (Of course, things can change.  In fact, time is on Obama’s side in this regard.  If unemployment turns around, Obama could look like a hero, whether or not anything he actually does leads to the turnaround or not.)

So I see Obama kind of floundering.  And then you look to the other side.  Who do they have?  It sure does look like Palin is the biggest star of the Republican Party.  Then I see her make her speeches in front of these crowds screaming “run, Sarah, run”.  I am thinking, wow, maybe she really has a chance.  Weak incumbent, opposing party with no one else to turn to, and suddenly Sarah freakin’ Palin flukes her way into the Presidency.

But I forgot one thing.  The “Tea Party” is not mainstream America.  When she is making her speeches, she is just preaching to her own choir.  Recent poll numbers back this up:

http://abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/poll-tea-party-shows-prospects-sarah-palin/story?id=9800379

71% of those polled do not think she is qualified to be President.  Only 29% of independents polled think she is qualified.  Maybe most importantly, even 52% of Republicans polled do not think she is qualified.  Reading around on some blogs, I have read some that have said that she has become “Dan Quayle-ized”, and this is from bloggers that support her.

Whew!  I think the analogy with Dan Quayle is right.  I know I feel better.  No President Palin means no Canadian gesvol, aye!  I don’t think I could handle running in the Canadian cold!

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Comments
  1. Don’t scare me like that!

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