Hello everyone, updating the charts again. The number of reported cases continue to drop nationwide, with the noticeable exception of the West South Central region where the drop has stalled out for some reason. That will be worth keeping an eye on. Meanwhile the number of reported deaths have just sort of leveled off. I think part of that is reporting anomalies, as there was a large number of reported deaths reported out of Indiana a couple of days ago as a result of an audit (I may ultimately adjust that number, but I haven’t yet). And part of it is just the lag that reported deaths fall behind reported cases.
East North Central: Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin
East South Central: Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi, and Tennessee
Middle Atlantic: Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania
Mountain: Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming
New England: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont
Pacific: Alaska, California, Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington
South Atlantic: Florida, Georgia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Northern Mariana Islands, and Virgin Islands
West North Central: Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota
West South Central: Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Texas
So before I post the charts, just a couple of observations. Reported cases are definitely coming down and that is pretty much countrywide. Now that we are past of the holidays and have a more complete picture, my guess is basically cases peaked in late December or early January for much of the nation (the northern Midwest actually peaked sooner). The pattern is not quite as clear for deaths (reported death rates still increasing on the coasts and southern Midwest with decreases elsewhere) but keep in mind that is a lagging indicator. My guess is that deaths are basically hit the peak now and next time I update we will see clear decreases in most regions.
On the flip side, the common belief is that the more contagious strain of Covid-19 from Great Britain will soon become the predominate strain in this country. So if you looked at what is happening in Great Britain, they have a spike in rate of deaths that would make the U.S. spike look like a little hiccup. (They are nearing 20 deaths per million per day on average while the U.S. current peak was a little over 10 deaths per million per day on average). So if that happens, it could mean we have another spike in the next couple of months.
East North Central: Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin
East South Central: Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi, and Tennessee
Middle Atlantic: Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania
Mountain: Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming
New England: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont
Pacific: Alaska, California, Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington
South Atlantic: Florida, Georgia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Northern Mariana Islands, and Virgin Islands
West North Central: Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota
West South Central: Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Texas
Before I get on with the graphs, just a little editorializing about the vaccine release. I was pretty disheartened to see the Alabama plan, mostly with the statement that “in the coming months the state will begin offering vaccines to people in 1c”, meaning phase 1c. In the coming months? And 1c is not everyone else, it’s another select group meeting certain criteria (being over 65….though in a sense between 65-75 since over 75 is a earlier phase, having certain pre-existing conditions, and ‘essential workers’ not included in earlier phases). Now maybe they just wanted to be careful with their words to not set expectations too high. But it’s hard not to read that as vaccines not being widely available for quite a while yet.
Now don’t get me wrong, this is not an easy logistical challenge. But I have a few thoughts:
We need to make sure we are solving the right problems. The word is Biden wants to release pretty much all the vaccines rather than holding half back for a second dose. But is the current situation a supply problem or a distribution problem? At this writing, about 22 million doses have been released but only 6.6 millions put into people’s arms. The certainly suggests a distribution problem in which just pushing more doses into the supply won’t solve.
To that end, we should be careful with just ditching the 2 shot thing right off the bat. You might be causing another problem without even solving the first problem.
I think we should be careful not to overcomplicate the distribution with multi-phase with sub-phases plans. Given supplies were always going to be limited at first, having an initial phase of first comers probably makes sense. But the ultimate goal should be to have both the supply and distribution chain where we can just deliver doses to anyone who wants one up and running as fast as possible.
This may be where we may need to lean heavier on the Moderna vaccine, which my understanding has more traditional storage requirements than the Pfizer vaccine which requires extremely cold storage. Currently only 15 locations in Alabama even have the equipment to be able to distribute the Pfizer vaccine for instance.
With that, let’s get to the updated graphs. The holidays really have mucked up the ability to see trends with the data. Now that we are past that, in the coming weeks the reporting should become more consistent again and trends easier to see. My general sense is that the numbers are still going up, but at a more constant rather than increasing rate (though this also doesn’t appear to be consistent between regions).
East North Central: Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin
East South Central: Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi, and Tennessee
Middle Atlantic: Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania
Mountain: Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming
New England: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont
Pacific: Alaska, California, Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington
South Atlantic: Florida, Georgia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Northern Mariana Islands, and Virgin Islands
West North Central: Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota
West South Central: Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Texas
Hope everyone enjoyed the Christmas holiday. So updating the charts today. First, obviously the Christmas holiday is going to skew the reporting as obviously some reporting entities took some time off. But trying to look at the numbers for good news that’s not an illusion, it appears to me particularly in the case reported numbers that there was plateauing if not out right decreasing of the cases even prior to the holidays. We will be able to tell better once reporting resumes to normal, but hopefully that is the case. (But do please keep in mind that the numbers of the last couple of days are artificially low enough to make the 7-day averages also artificially low. They will catch up next week, but there’s really nothing that can be done other than use the numbers as is.)
East North Central: Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin
East South Central: Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi, and Tennessee
Middle Atlantic: Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania
Mountain: Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming
New England: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont
Pacific: Alaska, California, Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington
South Atlantic: Florida, Georgia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Northern Mariana Islands, and Virgin Islands
West North Central: Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota
West South Central: Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Texas
Here’s another update of the charts. As expected, the dip we saw right at Thanksgiving was an artifact of delayed reporting and now the numbers have caught back up and unfortunately continue to be on the significant rise. The very smallest of good news is it appears that reported cases may have finally peaked for the West North Central region (assuming there hasn’t been some decrease in percentage of testing). Unfortunately that appears to be the only region where cases are peaking, and that means reported deaths will also continue to rise.
East North Central: Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin
East South Central: Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi, and Tennessee
Middle Atlantic: Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania
Mountain: Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming
New England: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont
Pacific: Alaska, California, Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington
South Atlantic: Florida, Georgia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Northern Mariana Islands, and Virgin Islands
West North Central: Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota
West South Central: Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Texas
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