COVID-19 Graphs Updated 2/26/2022

So finally got done with the busy period at work. So I decided to update the Covid-19 graphs. Basically we get to see the results of the Omicron wave.

I have decided to replace the cases graphs with hospitalizations graphs. The hospitalizations data is from the HHS.

The reported deaths data continues to be from the New York Times.

Data Source – New York Times github

Data Info – New York Times data info

Regions:

East North Central: Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin

East South Central: Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi, and Tennessee

Middle Atlantic: Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania

Mountain: Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming

New England: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont

Pacific: Alaska, California, Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington

South Atlantic: Florida, Georgia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Northern Mariana Islands, and Virgin Islands

West North Central: Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota

West South Central: Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Texas

United States graphs:

Regional charts:

And finally the regional comparison chart:

Seems like there is some optimism that at least the worst is over with the vaccines, better treatments, combined with natural immunity. As far as updates, I will say they are going to be infrequent now, basically when I feel like doing it (which will be if I think there is anything interesting to find).

Until next time.

COVID-19 Graphs Updated 12/11/21

Before I show the updated graphs, a couple of notes. First, even with all the news surrounding the Omicron variant, Delta is certainly still the dominant strain in the United States. Second, it is too early to tell what the impacts of Omicron will be. It almost certainly is more infectious. But the relative virulence is not yet known. It does seem while the vaccines may not be as effective in preventing absolute infection, it still provides solid protection against severe disease.

Data Source – New York Times github

Data Info – New York Times data info

Regions:

East North Central: Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin

East South Central: Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi, and Tennessee

Middle Atlantic: Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania

Mountain: Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming

New England: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont

Pacific: Alaska, California, Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington

South Atlantic: Florida, Georgia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Northern Mariana Islands, and Virgin Islands

West North Central: Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota

West South Central: Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Texas

Here are the countrywide charts:

Regional charts:

And finally the regional comparison charts:

I am coming up against my busy season at work, so it may be couple of months before I get a chance to update these again.

COVID-19 Graphs Updated 11/13/2021

Updating the graphs again.

One thing that is occurring to me that at some point the tracking of cases may lose value as the number of vaccinated and other immunity builds and as treatments become available changes in the numbers of cases will become less of a true predictor of future hospitalizations and deaths. Or at the very least such a small percentage of cases will become hospitalizations/deaths that it won’t matter as much. The only true end game is that Covid-19 will transition from pandemic to endemic at which point there will likely still be patterns in increases and decreases of cases, just in a relatively predictable manner.

But for now I think I will continue to chart those. It does look like an increase in reported cases is beginning again, likely as part of the winter season (increases are primarily in the northern portions of the country). Reported deaths is slightly decreasing countrywide, with it stagnant in most regions with a big decreases mostly in southern regions.

Data Source – New York Times github

Data Info – New York Times data info

Regions:

East North Central: Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin

East South Central: Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi, and Tennessee

Middle Atlantic: Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania

Mountain: Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming

New England: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont

Pacific: Alaska, California, Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington

South Atlantic: Florida, Georgia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Northern Mariana Islands, and Virgin Islands

West North Central: Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota

West South Central: Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Texas

Here are the countrywide charts:

Regional charts:

And finally the regional comparison charts:

Next update in a month or so.

COVID-19: Updated Graphs As Of 10/16/2021

Updating the graphs again. Looks like in terms of cases, while reported cases are generally down, it does look like that is varying region to region (where there are sharp decreases in some regions, others are more stagnant). With the lag, it looks like where cases were peaking last time, now it looks like in general reported deaths are peaking and even starting to fall this time.

Data Source – New York Times github

Data Info – New York Times data info

Regions:

East North Central: Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin

East South Central: Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi, and Tennessee

Middle Atlantic: Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania

Mountain: Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming

New England: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont

Pacific: Alaska, California, Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington

South Atlantic: Florida, Georgia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Northern Mariana Islands, and Virgin Islands

West North Central: Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota

West South Central: Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Texas

Here are the countrywide charts:

Regional charts:

And finally the regional comparison charts:

Next update in a month or so.

COVID-19: Updated Graphs As Of 9/11/2021

Updating the graphs again. Generally speaking, the bad news as I thought might happen, reported deaths are now trending back upwards. If there is a glimmer of good news, it looks like maybe reported cases are peaking.

Data Source – New York Times github

Data Info – New York Times data info

Regions:

East North Central: Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin

East South Central: Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi, and Tennessee

Middle Atlantic: Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania

Mountain: Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming

New England: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont

Pacific: Alaska, California, Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington

South Atlantic: Florida, Georgia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Northern Mariana Islands, and Virgin Islands

West North Central: Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota

West South Central: Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Texas

Here are the countrywide charts:

Here are the regional charts:

And finally the regional comparison charts:

Back in a month or so.

COVID 19 Part 2 – Updated Graphs As Of 8/7/2021

Now for the updated graphs. Bottom line is overall reported cases are going back up and at a pretty good clip. Reported deaths are still flat to going slightly up. Hopefully with the most vulnerable vaccinated, they don’t quite follow as closely at case, but it won’t surprise me if they start going up just based on the sheer volume of number of cases.

Data Source – New York Times github

Data Info – New York Times data info

Regions:

East North Central: Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin

East South Central: Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi, and Tennessee

Middle Atlantic: Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania

Mountain: Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming

New England: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont

Pacific: Alaska, California, Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington

South Atlantic: Florida, Georgia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Northern Mariana Islands, and Virgin Islands

West North Central: Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota

West South Central: Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Texas

Here are the countrywide charts:

Here are the regional charts:

• 

And finally the regional comparison charts:

See in you all in a month or so.

COVID-19 Part 1 – Thoughts

More Data Like This Would Really Help Demonstrate the Effectiveness of The Vaccines (Good Job VA)

Going to update the graphs this weekend, but first I thought I would make a post with some of the thoughts rattling around my head:

• Masks and other social distancing measures do help mitigate the spread of the virus. But they are not the way we get out of this and never meant to be. Immunity is the way out. The easier way would be the vaccines. The hard way is getting the virus itself and hoping you live through it so you have natural immunity afterwards. The hard way is going to be more taxing on our health systems and will lead to more pain and more deaths.
  
• Vaccines are not 100% effective. They weren’t in testing, so they aren’t going to be in the real world.
  
• However the evidence says they work a the best mitigation against the disease. Even the events in Provincetown, the real story is that the numbers are consistent with a working vaccine. The headlines are using the wrong denominator. They are presenting the number of fully vaccinated cases divided by total cases. The true numbers you need to present is the number of fully vaccinated cases divided by the number of vaccinated people and compare that to the number of non-vaccinated cases divided by the number of non-vaccinated people. After all, assuming the disease does not go away which is probably won’t, if everyone gets the vaccination then 100% of the cases will be among vaccinated people. That doesn’t mean the vaccine doesn’t work.
  
  Let’s take an example. Let’s say that there is a super-spreader event to the extreme, maybe in a totally tight indoor location with no ventilation to speak of. Let’s say there is 10,000 people in the room. Further, let’s say that 8,500 people are vaccinated and 1,500 people are not. And 125 of the vaccinated get COVID, while 120 of the non-vaccinated get COVID. The scary headlines to put other there is “Over Half The People Who Got COVID At The Super-spreader Event Was Vaccinated!!!!”. And that would be true such at it is. But the thing that actually matters would be that 125 out of 8,500 vaccinated folks got it (1.5%) while 120 out of the 1,500 unvaccinated folks got it (8.0%). If this was a clinical trial, the results would say that the vaccine has a 82% efficacy rate ([0.015 – 0.08]/0.08). This is how much your risk was reduced due to the vaccine.
  
• And reducing the risk of getting the virus is just part of the story. Vaccinations also help those that contract the virus from being admitted into the hospital (and by definition from dying). So far, it has been very very effective in that regard.
  
• Us vaccinated folks do need to be aware though that if it does breakthrough, that doesn’t mean we won’t get sick. In fact, we may get quite sick. “Minor” from a clinical point of view means they didn’t have to admit you into the hospital. I think most of of us think of “minor” has maybe we get the sniffles. But we may (and sometimes will) get sick enough to need to stay home in bed and miss work and feel awful. We just need to be mentally prepared for that.
  
• The CDC may be the experts at disease. But they are awful at communications and are in desperate need of somebody that can take their information and effectively communicate it to the public. Not sure how much of this has to do with “noble lies” in an attempt to try to influence public behavior but I think it’s been poor.
  
• I also don’t think the Biden administration’s attempt to get more folks vaccinated has been the best. Maybe I missing the behind-the-scenes work, but the strategy (especially until recently) seems mostly one of just rah-rah encouragement. I think to get more remaining to vaccinate, it’s going to take a more hands-on roll up your sleeves effort to figure out the barriers still have to vaccination and how to remove them. Educate as much as possible (how was the vaccine developed so fast [quick answer, a lot of the work had already been done before COVID-19], where can you get the vaccine now [many more places than originally], how much does it cost [it’s free….and by free….free free, not flu vaccine “free”, for this one you don’t even need health insurance, it’s free for everyone], etc.
  
• It’s been told that some in hospitals have begged for vaccinations. I hope there isn’t too much of a misconception that vaccines can be used as treatments and therefore you can wait to get Covid and then get the vaccine. It’s too late once you get the virus.
  
• Speaking of treatments, there does seem to be good progress on that front. That will also help us get out of this mess.
  
• In closing, I would say don’t even bother listening to Trump or Biden or Pelosi or McConnell or Fox News or CNN. But do at least talk to people you trust like your doctor or perhaps a friend or family member who have received the vaccine and ask questions. Ask why they chose to get vaccinated, what concerns did they have and how did they get past those concerns, what were the cons but why they think the pros outweigh those, etc. Right now everyone gets to make a personal decision in regards to the vaccine, but the more folks we can get vaccinated, the sooner this thing becomes a nothingburger.

COVID-19 Statistics Updated Through July 1

Hey all, updating the graphs again.

Looks like over the last month reported cases have continued to fall, though the decreases may be stalling out (could be the result of the Delta variant?). Reported deaths have also continued to fall to pretty low levels. The vaccines are working, and I believe will continue to get better results if we can get more people vaccinate (to that end, I think we need to be looking for solutions to make vaccination as easy as possible…not sure just encouragement is going to get the job done).

Data Source – New York Times github

Data Info – New York Times data info

Regions:

East North Central: Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin

East South Central: Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi, and Tennessee

Middle Atlantic: Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania

Mountain: Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming

New England: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont

Pacific: Alaska, California, Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington

South Atlantic: Florida, Georgia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Northern Mariana Islands, and Virgin Islands

West North Central: Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota

West South Central: Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Texas

United States Graphs:

Region Charts:

And finally here are the region comparison charts:

Happy Independence Day everyone. See ya in a month or so.

COVID-19 Statistics Updated 5/28/2021

With a little delay I am updating the charts again.

First, reported case numbers are really declining nicely. This should start showing up in the reported death numbers really soon. In fact I believe some of why it is not is because of reporting artifacts. I was able to find one and adjust for Maryland where they went back and updated their counts for 517 additional deaths. Oklahoma also had something like that, but they declined to differentiate how may of their reported counts were for catch up and how much actually were new for the week, so I decided not to adjust. Look like to me there may have been a couple of other instances.

Also with the improving numbers, I believe I am going to cut back these updates to once a month rather than every two weeks.

Without further ado, here are the updated charts:

Data Source – New York Times github

Data Info – New York Times data info

Regions:

East North Central: Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin

East South Central: Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi, and Tennessee

Middle Atlantic: Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania

Mountain: Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming

New England: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont

Pacific: Alaska, California, Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington

South Atlantic: Florida, Georgia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Northern Mariana Islands, and Virgin Islands

West North Central: Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota

West South Central: Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Texas

United States Graphs:

Regional Charts:

And finally the regional comparison charts:

See you all at the end of June.

COVID-19 Statistics Updated 5/7/21

Hey all. First, on a personal note, I received my second Covid-19 vaccination shot on Thursday. For me, it (this is the Moderna vaccine) definitely packed more of a punch than the first one as I definitely had more side effects. Basically it was like a minor short-run flu (fatigue, chills, fever…but not as bad as a full-fledged flu and also only lasting a few hours), to go along with the same sore arm as I had last time. But overall it wasn’t that bad and I think it will definitely be worth the benefits.

Second, a couple of housekeeping notes in regards to the data. New Jersey subtracted a bunch of duplicate reported cases on 4/27 while West Virginia subtracted reported deaths on 4/26 and I have adjusted for that in the graphs.

In regards to the graph trends, reported deaths are holding stubbornly steady overall. However reported cases are declining and I expect that once the lag period works it way through the reported deaths will follow in a few weeks.

Data Source – New York Times github

Data Info – New York Times data info

Regions:

East North Central: Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin

East South Central: Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi, and Tennessee

Middle Atlantic: Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania

Mountain: Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming

New England: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont

Pacific: Alaska, California, Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington

South Atlantic: Florida, Georgia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Northern Mariana Islands, and Virgin Islands

West North Central: Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota

West South Central: Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Texas

United States Graphs:

Region Charts:

And finally the regional comparison charts:

Next update in a couple of weeks.